Global financial markets exuded a positive aura during the first quarter as well. Stocks rallied throughout much of the world reflecting improved economic outlooks and the shedding of the post-COVID malaise. In a confirmation that the world is moving past the last vestiges of the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, the Bank of Japan ended its negative interest rate policy after eight years and raised short term interest rates for the first time since 2007. The Nikkei stock market notched its first record in 34 years and has returned about 20% this year.
The increasing acceptance of a sustained U.S. expansion is built on three pillars: a strong employment scenario; sound private sector financial metrics; and continued fiscal spending. At the same time, the rampant inflation of 2022-2023 appears to have eased, though the cumulative effects remain, with greater impact to lower income Americans.